Articles written by
James Macpherson
Quarterly Investment Outlook
The performance and current level of the world bond markets are extraordinary. The French example illustrates the bizarreness of this situation. French government debt reached €2.3 trillion at the end of 2018 and is estimated to expand by a further €80 billion this year, largely as a result of President…
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Notz Stucki Investment Conference
Notz Stucki Investment Conference - 25 June 2019 The central question that the presentation addressed was whether the difficult conditions of last year were a buying opportunity, or whether they were the start of a longer, deeper downward phase from a combination of the Federal Reserve tightening policy and the…
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Notz Stucki Investment Meeting – Pierre Gave
Is the worst of the global slowdown behind us? In 2018 there was no place to hide in financial markets, but in the first quarter of this year a much better environment took hold. The turnaround is surprising in some ways. The fundamentals of most economies have not changed much.…
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Investment Outlook Q1 2019
Where are the gilets jaunes of the bond market? As the various Central Banks peddle back on their quantitative tightening program the financing needs correspondingly grow. Buyers will need to be found at a point when competition for debt is rising. Global debt has climbed by $100 trillion since the…
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Investment Review Q4 2018
2018 was a brutal year for financial assets. A chart issued by Morgan Stanley shows all 17 major asset classes down for the year. Fixed income and equities in both Developed and Emerging Markets, and Commodities all fell. The indices disguise the true extent of the damage. The index heavy…
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Notz Stucki Investment Conference
Notz Stucki Investment Conference - January 8th 2019 2018 was an ugly year in financial markets with every major asset class falling. Equities were the worst performer, but even US Treasuries fell. Only US cash showed any return. Our meeting reviewed some of the causes of this poor result, and…
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Investment Review Q3 2018
“I think Trump may be one of those figures who appear in history from time to time to mark the end of an era and to force it to give up the old pretences.” Henry Kissinger. 21.7.18 The third quarter was difficult in financial markets. Tightening liquidity as a result…
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Notz Stucki Investment Meeting – Anatole Kaletsky
"Bull Market Will Continue - despite all the risks" 2018 has been a difficult year in financial markets with almost every equity and bond market suffering, with the notable exception of the US stock market. A further complication for investors has been that this has not been caused by a…
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Investment Outlook Q3 2018
At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company.…
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Notz Stucki Investment Conference
Notz Stucki Investment Conference - June 26th 2018 Gavekal’s presentation considered the rising rivalry of the US and China. In recent months tensions have risen, which so far have been expressed through a relatively minor increase in tariffs. But the competition between the world’s two largest countries will be permanent…
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