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Tag: equity markets
Chart of the Month – «If you ask me anything I don’t know, I’m not going to answer» Yogi Berra
«If you ask me anything I don't know, I’m not going to answer» Yogi Berra And yes, here we go again with one of Yogi Berra’s insightful quote, which, this time, applies for the fate of the economy. It’s anybody’s guess today to give an indication of where the global…
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Q3 2020 – NS Quarterly Investment Review
“The Fed is following the markets, not the other way round.” Christopher Wood “At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. It also assumes…
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Quarterly Investment Review
“Policymakers have conjured tons and tons of money out of thin air. As a result, we are now in a situation where never before in history has so much money been chasing so few goods and so few financial assets.”” Charles Gave In the second quarter equity markets rallied strongly…
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Quarterly Investment Review
‘It’s ludicrous that a government can borrow at a negative interest rate and doesn’t take advantage of that.’ Sajid Javid, UK Chancellor, 7.12.19 At the peak in 2019 $17 trillion of global bonds carried a negative yield. One shouldn’t lose sight of the fact of how odd it is to…
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Chart of the Month – Sell in May and go away? or Hedge a quarter and sleep better?
Sell in May and go away? or Hedge a quarter and sleep better? It was an extraordinary time to hedge a portfolio (or take profit) in November 2017 when the ratio S&P 500 PE/VIX reached 1.80 and was close to 3 standard deviation away from its mean (refer to our…
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Investment Outlook Q1 2019
Where are the gilets jaunes of the bond market? As the various Central Banks peddle back on their quantitative tightening program the financing needs correspondingly grow. Buyers will need to be found at a point when competition for debt is rising. Global debt has climbed by $100 trillion since the…
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Investment Review Q3 2018
“I think Trump may be one of those figures who appear in history from time to time to mark the end of an era and to force it to give up the old pretences.” Henry Kissinger. 21.7.18 The third quarter was difficult in financial markets. Tightening liquidity as a result…
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Investment Outlook Q3 2018
At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company.…
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Chart of the Month – What’s going on?
What's going on? The US yield curve is flattening at a steady pace. One of the most followed indicators, the 2-10 year differential, has more than halved since the beginning of the year, from 125 basis points to less than 60 bps today. Traditionally, a flattening yield curve is…
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Notz Stucki Investment Meeting – Notes 11 04 2017
Over the past year world economic growth has been stronger than expected, for several reasons. First China’s growth has been solid. Instead of imploding the industrial side of the economy bounced back in 2016 in response to the policy measures of a year ago. Growth in China may fade a…
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