Search results for
Tag: quarterly investment outlook
Quarterly Investment Review
‘It’s ludicrous that a government can borrow at a negative interest rate and doesn’t take advantage of that.’ Sajid Javid, UK Chancellor, 7.12.19 At the peak in 2019 $17 trillion of global bonds carried a negative yield. One shouldn’t lose sight of the fact of how odd it is to…
READ MORE
Quarterly Investment Outlook
The dominant feature of financial markets remains the low yields offered by bond markets, and in particular the increase in the quantity of bonds which carry negative yields. In the third quarter world markets as measured by the MSCI World were flat. Year to date the S&P is up 18.7%…
READ MORE
Quarterly Investment Outlook
The performance and current level of the world bond markets are extraordinary. The French example illustrates the bizarreness of this situation. French government debt reached €2.3 trillion at the end of 2018 and is estimated to expand by a further €80 billion this year, largely as a result of President…
READ MORE
Investment Outlook Q1 2019
Where are the gilets jaunes of the bond market? As the various Central Banks peddle back on their quantitative tightening program the financing needs correspondingly grow. Buyers will need to be found at a point when competition for debt is rising. Global debt has climbed by $100 trillion since the…
READ MORE
Investment Review Q3 2018
“I think Trump may be one of those figures who appear in history from time to time to mark the end of an era and to force it to give up the old pretences.” Henry Kissinger. 21.7.18 The third quarter was difficult in financial markets. Tightening liquidity as a result…
READ MORE
Investment Outlook Q3 2018
At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company.…
READ MORE
Investment Outlook Q2 2018
After the strong performance in almost every equity market in 2017, characterised by a remarkable lack of volatility, the financial weather changed abruptly in the middle of the last quarter. The trigger was a stronger than expected jump in US hourly wages in January. This inflationary fright rattled markets and…
READ MORE